# p(doom): Meaning and Why It Matters

> p(doom) is shorthand for a person's estimated probability that super intelligence leads to catastrophe. Explained in plain English, with sources.

Source: https://enterrsi.si/encyclopedia/p-doom/
Updated: 2026-11-08

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RSI Encyclopedia · Term

# p(doom)

p(doom) is shorthand for a person's estimated probability that super intelligence leads to catastrophe.

Category
:   Term

Also called
:   probability of doom, pdoom

Rogue Log cases
:   0

Laws that use it
:   0

## In plain English

The p stands for probability and doom for an outcome as bad as human extinction or permanent loss of control. The phrase started as an in joke among researchers and spread through podcasts, social media and interviews, where guests are often asked for their number. Answers from prominent researchers and lab leaders range from below 1 percent to above 50 percent.

A p(doom) is a personal judgment, not a measurement. People mean different things by doom and by the time frame, and the number mixes beliefs about how hard alignment is, how fast capabilities grow and how well institutions respond. Its value is as a conversation starter: it forces a clear statement of how worried someone is. Prediction markets and forecasting platforms offer a more structured version, with questions about specific events and dates, and the RSI Clock uses some of them as an input.

## Why it matters for rogue SI

p(doom) is how the rogue SI debate is often summarized in public. The RSI Clock offers an alternative: one number built from public data with a published formula, instead of a personal guess.

The term

Term
:   p(doom)

Also called
:   probability of doom, pdoom

Category
:   Term

Related terms
:   3

Related terms

[Existential risk **Term**](https://enterrsi.si/encyclopedia/existential-risk/)[Rogue Super Intelligence (RSI) **Term**](https://enterrsi.si/encyclopedia/rogue-super-intelligence/)[Fast takeoff **Term**](https://enterrsi.si/encyclopedia/fast-takeoff/)

Cite this entry

"p(doom)." The RSI Encyclopedia, enterrsi.si, November 8, 2026. https://enterrsi.si/encyclopedia/p-doom/

Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to enterrsi.si.

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